Q4 2026 · Outlook
Threading The NeedleConfirmation, Not Anticipation Two walls, one path between them, and the Fed has now stepped onto that path. One hike is already delivered, dot plots imply one more hike before year end. Below-trend growth remains the likely outcome either way. Earnings are strong, and the bubble anatomy, demand over-estimation, unrealistic valuations, capital misallocation, unsustainable debt, doesn't confirm at any of its four stages. The growth bias stays, expressed through AI infrastructure rather than a blanket bet on the index. Confirmation, not anticipation, is how we thread it. Our multi-asset outlook stays modestly overweight equities at the index level, neutral fixed income with a preference for the quality end of the curve, and continues to favour gold as the structural currency and dollar diversifier. Within equities, the growth bias is expressed through AI infrastructure, commodities and defence rather than broad index exposure. Download the comprehensive Q4 2026 outlook report Eight Themes
1Macro: Inflation, Growth, Rates
2Fiat Debasement in an Insular World
3Earnings
4AI Capex and Monetization
5Leverage
6Defence and Energy Security
7Volatility Dispersion
8Late Cycle Sectors
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