Lighthouse Canton |End of Goldilocks: Back to School Outlook Report
Report Cover Image

End of Goldilocks: Back to School Outlook

We expect September to be a pivotal month, establishing a trend for markets that is likely to last for some time -- our bias is to the downside for equities and to the upside for duration and volatility.

Download and explore insights from Lighthouse Canton's comprehensive September 2025 outlook report.

*By submitting the contact form, you consent to all data in the form being used in accordance with Lighthouse Canton's data privacy policy

We expect value to outperform growth in the short-term. A weakening economy is unlikely to be rescued in a hurry by lower interest rates. While earnings remain a bright spot, ever rising valuations require a consistently higher bar to beat. Besides, with jobs weakness to the fore, can consumption and earnings even hold up?

Key Takeaways

  • September as a Pivotal Month: Establishing market trends with downside bias for equities and upside for duration and volatility
  • Rotational Opportunities: Value expected to outperform growth in the short-term, with rate cut expectations benefiting Small Caps
  • Comprehensive Market Analysis: Proprietary model scores suggest neutral positioning in equities with downside risks to both equities and bonds
  • Global Positioning: China remains best positioned internationally, while credit spreads plumb new depths favoring duration over credit risks